Tag: Greencon
US Solar Thermal conditions – The same in SA
by admin on Jul.30, 2010, under Greencon, Greencon Solar Technology Update, Greencon Solar Water Heating Solutions
I recently came across this article in a Solar Thermal Journal – and it really struck me how the problems facing the implementation of solar thermal technology in First World countries like the US were a carbon copy of the situation here in South Africa. I really encourage you to read the article below about the potential for solar water heating in the US – just do yourself a favour and replace the every reference to “New York” with South Africa and you will have a good picture of the potential here and the hurdles we face.
Article by D Appleyard.
By unveiling a solar heating and cooling programme that could create 25,000 new green jobs, generate US$2.6 billion in revenue and see 2 GW of new solar thermal capacity installed in the state over the next decade, New York has revealed its ambition to become America’s national leader in solar heating and cooling.
Setting out its solar thermal roadmap, which was published at the NYSEIA conference in May 2010, the Solar Thermal Consortium (STC) plan focuses on improving uptake of solar thermal technologies through consumer education and incentives, installer training, promotions to attract manufacturers, investments in R&D, and permitting improvements.
Developed by more than 130 industrial, academic and governmental representatives, the Solar Thermal Roadmap creates a path to move New York State toward the equivalent of 1 million solar hot water collectors, or half a million residential systems, by 2020.
While these figures are still dwarfed by the German market, where around 200,000 solar hot water systems are installed annually for example, the measure is deeply significant in the US, where so far federal efforts have largely foundered and, as in many other nations, solar thermal is still the neglected poor cousin of other renewable energies like wind and solar PV.
With individual states left to devise and implement their own renewable energy programmes, the solar thermal plan for New York stands out.
The logic behind such a scheme is irrefutable, the New York Solar Energy Industries Association claims. ‘Sixty percent of the energy consumed in New York State buildings is to provide heat and hot water’, said its president, Ron Kamen, who noted that with the Roadmap: ‘New York is moving to become the national leader in the research, development, deployment and manufacture of solar thermal technologies.’
Focused on solar heat and hot water applications for buildings in New York State, the Roadmap is modeled on global best practices, as well as new ideas from the consortium. Its goal is to develop the New York State solar thermal industry so that the total installed statewide capacity grows from its current estimated level of 6 MWth to 2000 MWth by 2020, with 70% coming from residential and 30% from commercial installations.
The Roadmap’s proposed implementation would save an estimated 6 million US gal. (22.5 million litres) of oil, 9.5 million ft³ (270,000 m³) of natural gas and displace 320 GWh of electricity production annually by 2020, translating into consumer savings of more than $175 million per year, the STC claims.
Barriers To Implementation
While the total U.S. installed solar thermal capacity of some 7.6 GWth is close to the German installed capacity of 8 GWth, the majority of this capacity is derived from swimming pool heating rather than domestic hot water or space heating. On a per capita basis, the contrast is stark, with 100 Wth/person installed in Germany and 0.3 Wth/person installed per person in New York State, a factor of close to 1000. Indeed, the Roadmap acknowledges that the state lags the world in terms of solar thermal usage.
Nonetheless, despite the small base, since heating and cooling makes up around 30% of the total energy use in the U.S., and current total installed solar thermal capacity equates to approximately 0.06% of the entire U.S. energy consumption, there is an opportunity for solar thermal to make a significant impact.
Solar thermal has certainly seen growth in cold climates such as those encountered in the region. For example, in 2008 Canada installed 40 MWth of solar thermal capacity for both space and water heating. Even so, the report does recognise that levels of adoption and market growth are a result of many factors, including energy cost, governmental regulations, aggressive marketing and educational programmes, and incentives.
In New York State the authors contend that solar thermal systems can provide 50%–70% of the domestic hot water used in a typical residence and that the state has an opportunity to expand this sector of the economy and position itself for a strong export base. However, there are significant hurdles to overcome. For example, the technology and its benefits are not widely known by consumers. Furthermore, sufficient industry knowledge and certified installers to support successful installations are lacking, and there are gaps in the value chain from materials to end-user. In addition, potential bar
riers to development of the industry in the state include poor awareness and perception based on experiences from the 1970s and 1980s. At that time the systems were perceived to be unreliable and with short life expectancies. Poor system integration and installations were primarily to blame for these experiences, the STC says.
Public sector support is also required in order for large-scale solar thermal adoption levels to be achieved. A public education campaign will require the support of both industry stakeholders and public officials to be successful. Governmental support is required initially to make the systems cost effective and to attract manufacturing capability to the state. This requires an educational and lobbying effort on the part of the industrial partners targeted at state, federal and national officials.
The development of a trained workforce is also critical to achieve the goals of the Roadmap. It is vital that the quality of installations is high and that the systems function properly. An installation workforce needs to be developed and trained to ensure that this occurs. Courses are available which can provide this training, but few are currently located in the state.
System costs are another significant barrier to widespread adoption. While there is a segment of the market that identifies environmental issues as the primary driver for adoption, the Roadmap goals cannot be achieved by this segment alone and current system and permitting costs need to be addressed to grow the industry significantly.
The ability to fully realise the potential of solar thermal technologies is currently further limited by long-term technology development. Advanced technologies such as solar assisted cooling, integrated PV/solar thermal systems, and low temperature solar thermal electric generation are potential areas of opportunity. Thermal storage is also an area that, if effectively solved, would allow for additional advancement of the industry.
Costs of Solar Thermal in New York State
The rationale for developing a strong solar thermal industry in New York State comes from three areas: end-user energy cost savings, environmental impacts, and economic development through job creation systems and industry sales.
A model for direct hot water (DHW) systems was developed
to determine the potential impact of the adoption of solar thermal technologies, and to investigate incentive and growth levels needed to reach the roadmap goal. Based on industry input, systems were modeled with initial installed costs of $8000 for residential systems and $18,000 for commercial systems. The costs were held fixed for three years and then reduced at an annual rate of 5% thereafter on the basis of increased competition and supply, as well as future technological improvements.
The price of energy in New York State is among the highest in the USA. In 2009, electricity averaged 17.8 US cents/KWh and a four person ‘model’ family would be expected to spend between $390 and $1100 (depending on the fuel source) to provide domestic hot water in 2010. Over the past 10 years energy prices in New York State have increased at a substantial rate averaging 9% and 11% annually for fuel oil and natural gas respectively. A conservative 8% annual escalation in fuel prices is assumed in the model, which by 2020 drives the cost for heating hot water to between $620 and $170
0 per household, again depending on the fuel source.
In this analysis, assuming the 8% annual increase in energy prices, by 2020 the savings for a four person model family supplying 50% of their water heating needs from solar are projected to increase to between $310 and $850 annually. Fuel savings, from residential DHW applications alone, show the potential for a dramatic reduction in emissions too. In 2010 the model family with a solar thermal system could save approximately 100 US gallons of fuel oil, 125 therms of natural gas or 3100 KWh of electricity.
According to the model, combined residential and commercial sales start at $5 million in 2010 and rise to $629 million in 2020. Total revenues from 2010–2020 are projected to be $2.6 billion. Furthermore, the analysis is based only on the development of a state-wide domestic hot water market. The potential impact is obviously multiplied when other technologies such as solar space heating, ‘combi’ systems and solar assisted cooling are considered, as well as potential opportunities elsewhere in the US and overseas.
Job creation associated with the solar thermal market development is modeled using current job levels in Europe as a basis. And in Europe, one job is created and sustained for every 1000 ft² (93 m²) of newly installed panel area, the Roadmap states. These jobs include manufacturing, installation and maintenance, and under the developed growth model, in total approximately 24,000 jobs will be created and sustained by 2020, significantly up from the current estimated level of some 36 solar thermal employees. Clearly, the im
pact of a vibrant solar thermal market is significant to the state.
Solar Thermal Roadmap Recommendations
Recommendations set out in the Roadmap aim to address market barriers in a logical, cost effective manner and are grouped into five main categories including organization; awareness and marketing; institutional issues; workforce development; and, research and development.
The key recommendations are to:
- Create a state-wide educational campaign and electronic resource to inform consumers about solar thermal and its benefits;
- Initiate a solar thermal financial incentive programme to encourage installations by shortening payback time;
- Promote New York State as a location for manufacturers;
- Invest in research and development to create a scientific base which systematically develops next generation technologies; and,
- Clarify permitting procedures and union jurisdiction to simplify installations.
Funding for these solar thermal-focused efforts could come from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), the New York State Public Service Commission or similar programmes, the authors say.
Addressing public awareness, the roadmap recommends that a solar thermal website should be created to provide a central resource in the state. And, in order to track consumer awareness and satisfaction, it is recommended that a consumer survey be conducted each year focused on installers, consumers, and the general public. Data from the surveys will be used to determine market conditions — for instance the number of installs, system costs and such like — as well as an indication of consumer satisfaction, and the effectiveness of the marketing campaign.
Furthermore, growth in sales can also lead to job increases beyond installation jobs through increased manufacturing capability within the state, the report’s authors argue. For example, they say, interactions with European manufacturers during the course of developing the Roadmap have indicated their desire to locate manufacturing capabilities within the US.
In order to take advantage of these growth opportunities, it is recommended that within three months a committee led by economic development organizations be formed to develop a statewide marketing plan, for the expansion and attraction of manufacturing capabilities into the state. The marketing plan should address state and US market potential, state incentives, the existing workforce capability and industrial base, as well as R&D capabilities.
Current tax incentive programmes (30% federal, 25% state) for solar thermal systems provide a payback period for the average system of about 11–15 years for modelled residential systems. Payback for commercial systems can be significantly shorter due to accelerated depreciation. It is recommended that an incentive programme be combined with the current tax rebate programme to reduce the payback term further. It is additionally recommended that all available incentives be tied to an installer certification scheme to encourage high installation standards.
A fixed rebate model would pay a fixed amount based on system size and capability, as well on the primary heating source. Such an incentive programme could include residential as well as commercial, industrial, institutional, and agricultural consumers, though they may be structured differently. The incentive programme should be designed to sunset as system costs decline and energy prices escalate, the authors say, adding that such a model is attractiv
e as it decreases the upfront out of pocket expenses, which may be a barrier to adoption.
Incentives could also be tied to utility companies. For example, the Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) Solar Rebate Program is designed to offset electric usage through the adoption of renewable energy sources. This is particularly attractive to those consumers which use electricity to provide heat and hot water. LIPA reports that since 2000 it has paid out approximately $59 million in incentives resulting in more that 2400 installations (mostly PV) on Long Island and the creation of over 50 companies to conduct those installations. PV system costs have dropped to 35% through this programme and a combination of state and federal incentive schemes, and such programmes could
be expanded or developed to include gas and oil customers, the Roadmap document says.
Addressing a number of key institutional issues, the Roadmap also recommends that a permit system is developed so that a single permit can be applied for and granted for an installation. Such a permiting process would simplify installation procedures and reduce costs, while still ensuring that the installation complies with relevant zoning and building requirements.
It is also recommended that certain levels of renewable energy be mandated directly into the building code. Generating a significant proportion of a building’s energy from clean sources is clearly possible given current technologies and it is proposed that all new buildings over 10,0
00 ft² (929 m²) in area must generate 10%–20% of their energy from onsite renewables.
To encourage minimum installation quality standards state financial incentives could eventually be offered for systems that are installed by professionals who have passed – as a minimum – an entry-level solar hot water certification exam. The North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners (NABCEP) does currently offer a solar thermal certification test, though any requirement to sit this exam would most likely exclude the majority of the exisiting installers and restrict the initial growth of the industry, the authors argue. Currently there is no ‘entry-level’ exam, though NABCEP is reportedly developing one. Thus, in order to prevent a bottleneck in installation certification it is proposed that New York develop a staged programme of certification.
To properly train and qualify New York installers and inspectors, the preparation of a multi-faceted education scheme is another sensible goal, the authors say. Although there are many educational offerings already, a more robust and comprehensive educational programme and some governmental support for it are recommended.
In addition, despite the significant advances in solar thermal, further R&D is also needed to continue to reduce system costs, improve quality and performance, and develop new technologies.
While New York State has a substantial R&D base, there are few research groups within the state that directly focus on solar thermal. To facilitate the development of a R&D base within the state, the creation of a Solar Thermal Center of Excellence (COE) is recommended in the Roadmap.
The centre would encompass a collection of researchers with varied technical skills and interests aligned with solar thermal needs. Participants would be spread over a number of institutions and this would allow for the leveraging of existing expertise. In this way the state would nurture a developing specific
research base. The authors argue that the cluster should be developed and funded based on existing models in the state for academic/industrial partnerships.
Funding for the Solar Thermal COE would initially come from the state. The funds would be used for administrative purposes and to support initial research efforts.
Research would be awarded through a competitive proposal process, with matching funds required from industrial sources. Over time, however, the funding for the centre would predominantly come from industrial sources. The development would also help to attract new industrial capability to the state as it would allow for strong academic/industrial collaboration supporting the local development of new technologies, the Roadmap says.
The creation of a solar thermal system certification testing centre is also recommended by the analysis, which points out that New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) currently has an effort underway to develop small wind (less than 100 kW) and PV certification testing centres. A similar operation could be developed for solar thermal. Currently there is a bottleneck in the system certification process as the number of systems being submitted is greater than the available capacity. It is expected that within three years the certification centre would be fully self-sufficient with revenues from testing funding its operations.
While 42 million solar thermal systems have been installed worldwide, the US has been slow to adopt this technology. However, sentiment is changing. As the nation’s focus on renewable energy continues to grow, the expectation is that the adoption of solar thermal technology will, too.
Consequently, leading international solar thermal companiesare looking to establish production facilities in the US and the Roadmap’s authors believe that an organized effort to promote the industry could position the state as the solar thermal leader. They note that most states will be aggressive in trying to attract new business, especially given the recent business climate, and New York State aims to win first mover advantage to secure its share of a new industry that will create manufacturing, jobs and investment.
The STC is led by the collaborative efforts of Clarkson University’s Center for Advanced Materials Process (CAMP), the NYSTAR Center for Advanced Technology (CAT); the New York Solar Energy Industry Association (NYSEIA); The Solar Energy Consortium (TSEC) and Droege & Company, an international management consultancy firm.
Greencon Solar Water – Split Active Direct System
by admin on Jul.27, 2010, under Greencon, Greencon Solar Water Heating Solutions, Greencon Split Active Solar Water Systems
Greencon Solar Tech. – thermal division, we post daily updates of various types of solar installations we and our partners do around the country.
This helps inform our customers about the broad rage of products we install and the extensive experience we have in the field of solar thermal technology. The particular job we have posted for today was in Broadacres, Johannesburg.
This system is a Split Active Direct Solar Thermal System. That simply means that the solar collector is separated from the geyser (on top of the roof) and the solar geyser is installed internally.
We use a solar driven pump to reticulate the water from the solar geyser in the roof to the collector (solar panel) on the roof. 
The collector transfers the suns heat into the water, which is then returned to the solar geyser in the roof.
Because this system is direct it means that the liquid heated is the liquid used (the water from the geyser).
Old system replaced with new tech from Greencon
by admin on Jul.15, 2010, under Greencon, Greencon Solar Water Heating Solutions, Greencon Thermosiphon Systems
Good to see old customers sticking to their solar ways. They understand the savings they make not only financially but also environmentally. Have a look at this old thermosiphon system we replace with a direct vacuum tube system.
Keep it Green
Save Energy install a Greencon Heat Pump
by admin on Jul.08, 2010, under Greencon, Greencon Heat Pumps
A simple and easy process to install, heat pumps can be installed pretty much anywhere. As a renewable energy company we install them in jobs that don’t allow us to use solar thermal systems. We often use them in jobs as our auxillary back up units, that automatically activate when we have low solar values or there is extra usage on the solar geyser system.
It very important to size the right heat pump for the right application. No use over sizing a unit that does not realise its investment amount early in the life cycle of the piece of equipment.
Have a look at some systems we installed in Meyersdal, Johannesburg. These heat pumps were actually being used to heat a Jacuzzi.
Greencon Heat Pumps
by admin on Jul.08, 2010, under Greencon, Greencon Product Range, Greencon Technology Update
Heat pumps are an excellent alternative to passive energy collection systems. They still rely on electrical power but there advantage lies in the extremly efficient way they manage to heat water. At optimal ambient tempreture (20degC) they can work at an energy conversion factor of +/- 4.5times. So for every one kilowatt of power you put in, you get at least 4,5kw(thermal) out.
Sounds like a whole lot of Greek? Basically you can look at a saving of up to 70% on electrical usage for heating water.
We have installed heat pumps in areas from the Pilanesburg Game Park, to Johannesburg, Pretoria and along our coastal regions with very good results.
Please contact here if you need any further help.
Greencon Goes Mobile
by admin on Sep.03, 2009, under Greencon, Greencon Product Range, Greencon Solar Water Heating Solutions
Are you still a sceptic? Or do you lack the capacity to convince all around you that this is the future? Well then get Greencon to deliver a display unit at your workplace or complex. We have a number of units that can be delivered with “lecture” dates advertised on the units for all interested to come and learn. Mail : info@greencon.co.za to book a delivery date.
Keep it Green
CSP – The way forward
by admin on Sep.03, 2009, under Greencon, Greencon Technology Update
Despite their widespread use, solar technologies suffer the limitation of most renewable technologies: an unpredictable operating profile due to weather variations. However, using the highly efficient properties of molten salt for heat transfer, one technology insulates electricity production from weather volatility and, more importantly, it offers the capability to dispatch electricity as needed without requiring the use of natural gas. This technology is a concentrating solar power (CSP) technology, built around a proprietary central receiver tower and molten salt loop.
Thermal storage is widely regarded as the future for the renewable energy campaign because, unlike many intermittent renewable resources such as wind energy, it offers a “zero-emissions” technology with firm capacity and dispatchability characteristics. The thermal storage system provides an added benefit: allowing the plant to be designed to optimize the electricity load profile to meet specific market needs. A plant can be designed, for instance, to maximize electricity production during a period of peak demand or to continue to produce electricity after the sun goes down.
Figure 1 (left) illustrates how the thermal storage system can be utilized to “shift” electricity production to the peak demand period. Solar energy is collected when the sun begins to shine, but electricity is produced approximately 6 hours later in order to generate electricity during a period of peak demand. The red line represents direct solar irradiation, the solid blue line represents the production curve without storage and the dotted blue line represents the production curve with 6-hr storage.
Technology Description
Thermal storage technology uses a solar “power tower” design, which generates power from sunlight by focusing energy onto a tower-mounted central heat exchanger or receiver.
As shown in Figure 2 (above), a field of sun tracking mirrors called heliostats is used to reflect and concentrate the solar radiation onto the receiver (Step 1). At Solar Reserve’s Solar Two facility, molten salt is circulated through tubes in the receiver, collecting the energy gathered from the sun (Step 2). The hot molten salt is then routed to an insulated hot thermal storage tank where the energy can be stored with minimal energy losses (Step 3). When electricity is to be generated, the hot molten salt is routed to a heat exchanger (or steam generator) and used to produce steam at high temperature and pressure. The steam is then used to power a conventional steam turbine, generating electricity (Step 4). After exiting the steam generator, the molten salt is sent to the cold salt thermal storage tank (Step 5) and the cycle is repeated.
The salt is a combination of sodium and potassium nitrate, with a melting temperature of 460°F. In the liquid state, molten salt has the viscosity and the appearance similar to water. “In solar applications, molten salt is used for a number of practical reasons,” says Terry Murphy, Chief Executive Officer for SolarReserve, who along with others helped develop the molten salt technology at Rocketdyne. “Molten salt is a heat storage medium that retains thermal energy very effectively over time and operates at temperatures greater than 1000°F, which matches well with the most efficient steam turbines. Second, it remains in a liquid state throughout the plant’s operating regime, which will improve long-term reliability and reduce O&M costs. And third, it’s totally ‘green,’ molten salt is a non-toxic, readily available material, similar to commercial fertilizers.”
A primary advantage of molten salt central receiver technology is that the molten salt can be heated to 1050°F, which allows high energy steam to be generated at utility-standard temperatures (1650 psi minimum, 1025°F), achieving high thermodynamic cycle efficiencies of approximately 40 percent in modern steam turbine systems. This high cycle efficiency is maintained while allowing the use of dry cooling towers, which is important in arid states with the best solar potential. The molten salt heat transfer loop through the receiver is isolated from main steam temperatures and pressures, resulting in cost savings through the use of low-pressure salt piping. Finally, the system is designed to minimize the length of the molten salt loop to less than 2,500 feet, which is heat traced to prevent ‘freezing.’
Thermal storage systems using molten salt have been identified for use with other solar technologies, such as parabolic trough systems, which have been the dominant solar thermal technology installed to date. Trough plants will require an additional heat exchanger to transfer the energy from the working fluid to storage and to transfer the energy in storage back to the steam system. It is estimated that the additional heat exchanger required for a trough plant causes a loss in cycle efficiency loss of up to 7 percent. In addition, a trough facility that can only achieve a hot working fluid temperature of 700°F will require approximately 3 times the thermal storage volume to generate a given amount of electricity as an integrated thermal storage system which stores energy at 1050°F.
The high cycle efficiencies and flexibility available with a central receiver system and integral thermal storage provides a compelling offering to the renewable energy purchasers.
Source: Renwable Energy World
Keep it Green
Economic Review of the International PV Industry
by admin on Sep.03, 2009, under Greencon, Greencon Product Range
Even without the expected decrease in demand in 2009, technology revenues would be lower than the US $20.4 billion (€14 billion) of 2008 as cell and module prices are around 40% below 2008 levels. Figure 1 (shown below) provides technology revenues from the manufacturer to the first point of sale in the market from 2003 through 2013. For 2009 and 2010, an estimate of revenues for the recession forecast has been provided. With technology prices at the current level, even growth in sales volume, which is highly unlikely, would result in lower revenues in 2009.
Figure 1. Worldwide module revenue volume for recession, conservative and accelerated growth models 2003-2013.
Accelerated growth in the photovoltaic industry continued in 2008, with 79% market growth over the previous year to 5.5 GW. Unfortunately, the market was significantly oversold in 2008, stranding around 2 GW of product in supply side inventory at the beginning of 2009.
Most of the overselling was into Spain, which with a market volume coming in at 2.3 GW in 2008, represented 42% of total photovoltaic system sales worldwide. Along with high prices for modules and PV systems, quite a few instances of poor module product and poorly constructed systems, and permit speculation, the oversold market led the Spanish government to alter its support programme. The new decree capped the market, lowered the feed-in tariff and effectively closed Spain to new product sales for perhaps two years, or more.
Other than Germany, the PV industry currently has no other global market capable of accepting a volume of sales remotely similar to Spain. Moreover, the global recession and financial crises have further hobbled an industry that had been enjoying accelerated growth since 2004. For these reasons, the PV industry is set to experience its first decrease in demand in more than 30 years — and not just flat growth, but a decrease in sales volume of perhaps 30%, or even more.
Figure 2, (below), provides data for 35 years of PV industry growth, from 1974 through 2008, while Figure 3, (below), reveals three forecast scenarios for 2009, which are on based on assumptions related to recession, conservative and accelerated growth for the sector.
Though the PV industry enjoyed accelerated growth from 2004 through 2008, this rate will not continue in 2009, and accelerated growth is unlikely into 2010. In 2009, lending from the international debt markets continues to be depressed. Meanwhile, the loss of a major market — Spain — is having a deleterious effect on growth, inventories remain high, and global economies remain in recession.
Figure 2. Photovoltaic industry history 1974-2008 (CAGR = compound annual growth rate).
Furthermore, although market development is underway, Germany remains the only market capable of consuming more than a gigawatt of product, and other markets, such as Italy, are underperforming. Japan, South Korea, the United States and others continue to experience slow growth. The good news is that module prices in the soft market seen in 2009 continue to decrease significantly.
As previously noted, while the PV industry has experienced slow or flat growth so far this year — to July 2009 — it is an industry that has not experienced negative growth in 35 years or more. Conversely, years of significant strong growth of more than 70% include: 1975 at 150%, 1976 at 141%,1977 at 87%, 1978 at 112%, 1980 at 128%, 1983 at 88%, and 2008 at 79%.
Since 1974, the PV industry has only experienced three years of soft growth, defined here as demand growth of less than 10% in a given year: 1986 at 8%, 1993 at 3% and, 1994 at 10%.
The Incentive Driver
Historically, the PV industry has enjoyed strong growth, though at much lower volumes than today. The strong growth that the PV industry enjoyed since 2004 was driven by incentives, in particular, the feed-in tariff laws in Europe, and even more specifically, Spain’s generous programme. Though for countries in Europe (in general) there is no reason to assume that feed-in tariff programmes will stop altogether, the problems experienced in Spain (overselling, fraud and poor quality products among them) are having a sobering effect on government incentive planning in other EU countries. The support programmes of the future will need to include mechanisms that manage growth along with stimulating it.
The incentives that the industry relies on come with downward price pressure, which is a significant constraint. However, given the goal of grid parity, there is literally nowhere for price to go but down. Grid parity, nonetheless, is a complex subject, differing in most global markets. Moreover, grid parity provides a level competitive playing field for solar (a worthwhile goal on its own), but does not ensure success.
The industry also needs an increasing number of highly trained installers, sales personnel, engineers and such like, and this comes at a cost. Lower costs and prices are necessary for the continuation of incentives and, therefore, demand. For accelerated growth to continue, and for the eventual slowing of demand to happen gradually, unlike the expected steep decline in 2009, the PV industry must learn to manage its demand. It must develop incentives with triggers to control demand when it accelerates too quickly.
The industry must also control its supply chain from expensive raw material, to consumables, and through to the end user, and must participate with balance of systems (BOS) manufacturers to innovate and develop inexpensive and robust BOS. All raw materials, consumables and machinery are more expensive at this point because of the higher price of oil, which is necessary for transportation.
Other caveats to limitless growth are the high price of PV systems, and the availability of less expensive alternatives, including conventional energy sources such as natural gas and coal. In recent years, the current high volume of industry demand, coupled with raw material shortages, threw the industry into a panic. Instead of the technology standard, ‘if we build it they will come,’ the new mantra became, ‘they are coming and we can’t build it.’
The industry reacted by buying silicon feedstock and cell futures, and by raising component (module) and system average prices, globally. These long-term contracts for raw material, wafers and cells are proving unsupportable and in many cases, are being rewritten or ignored.
Figure 3. Recession, conservative and accelerated forecast scenarios for grid-connected PV, 2008-2013.
The Past Can Inform the Future
It is useful to study specific periods in the PV industry’s history, in terms of growth and drivers for growth, to see what can be learned from these periods which can be useful in understanding the direction of this still young industry. Figure 2, offers compound annual growth rates for the PV industry for specific periods, 1974–1984, 1984–1994, 1994–2004 and 2004–2008.
During 1974–1984, strong compound annual growth of 84% was due to utility and government-backed grid-connected demonstration projects. During this period, the grid-connected application was 30%–50% of total demand, though from annual totals less than 20 MW. Following this decade-long period of significant growth, lower compound annual growth of 13% for 1984–1994 was due to an almost complete cessation of these projects. During this period, grid-connected applications (primarily unsubsidized or incentivized) was less than 10% of annual demand.
Stronger compound annual growth of 33% during 1994–2004 reflects the beginning and continuation of the strong incentive programmes that continue to drive PV industry growth. Specifically in Europe, the feed-in tariff model has proven to be the most successful incentive model. Japan’s residential rooftop programme in the late 1990s, a capacity subsidy, built a sustainable market for solar roofs in that country. In the US, incentives in California created the most significant market in that country.
The 2004–2008 period also managed to encompass two significant events for the sector: the PV industry’s greatest raw material (silicon feedstock) shortage and its strongest period of sustained accelerated growth.
During this period, demand for large field grid-connected applications in Europe, largely driven by the feed-in tariff model of incentives, created the largest global market (79% in 2008) for solar systems. However, the solar-grade silicon raw material shortage that had pushed up prices for crystalline silicon modules also created an entry point for thin-film technologies, which had previously been viewed as risky. The industry’s compound annual growth for this period was 51%.
Grid-connected Growth Drivers
Like it or not … strong growth in the PV industry comes with strong growth in grid-connected applications. Off-grid (remote) applications show slow, steady growth over time, but have not driven the industry into gigawatt sales. It is the grid-connected applications (residential, small, medium and large commercial, large field commercial and utility) that dominate the market for photovoltaic modules. Indeed, at 94% of total sales in 2008, the volume of grid-connected installation leaves very little module product available for off-grid applications.
The grid-connected application remains driven by government subsidy/support programmes (Europe’s feed-in tariffs, US rebates, for example). Without such programmes the market for grid-connected PV products would decrease dramatically. The significant decrease in demand in 2009 is a lesson to the industry about the significant changes that could take place in demand, revenues and profitability when markets are abused, and when so-called ‘black swan’ events, such as the global recession, alter the playing field and force reactive market and price setting.
Figure 3 (shown above) offers an aggregate five-year forecast for grid-connected applications. The recession forecast is presented in Figure 3, but is considered a two-year anomaly. Meanwhile, Figure 2 excludes off-grid applications. However, at more than 90% of the total market demand, the volume of grid-connected applications effectively represents the total industry volume.
All is not doom and gloom, however, with encouraging current market developments in the US and some other countries. There is continued progress in lowering manufacturing costs so that a reasonable margin can be maintained along with lower system prices. We see progress in increasing efficiencies for all technologies, and business model innovations, meaning that accelerated growth will resume for the PV industry. Certainly, at this stage in PV industry development (which could be likened to its preadolescence) there is room to grow and much to learn before a stable, sustainable level of annual growth settles in. Until then, exciting, and sometimes painful times remain ahead.
Source: Renewable Energy World
Keep it Green
Energy saving advice from old guard
by admin on Aug.11, 2009, under Greencon, Greencon GreenBuilding Research
A quarter-century ago, in the wake of America’s first energy crisis, a young scientist named Amory Lovins came to the Rocky Mountains and built himself a radical house based on a radical idea. The country could save both energy and money, he believed, by combining common sense and unconventional technology.
Mr. Lovins did achieve substantial energy savings, and many of his innovations, from better insulation to multiple-pane windows to more-efficient refrigerators, eventually became familiar fixtures in American homes….
Now, Mr. Lovins has completed a renovation that he hopes will demonstrate how much more energy-efficient houses can become. But the project also serves as a reminder of the still-enormous gulf between what is technologically possible and what society is able or willing to pay for….
Some of his proudest advances stem from mundane changes. He installed an electric stove made by a Swiss company that is 60% more efficient than other models he found. The savings stem partly from pots designed specifically for the stove. The pots eliminate warping that typically occurs with copper cookware, wasting heat.
He also has shaved energy use by insisting on an unconventional plumbing design. Typically, residential pipes that carry water would be ½-inch wide and turn at right angles. But that builds up friction, requiring electric pumps to work harder to propel the water. So Mr. Lovins had ¾-inch-wide pipes installed that run diagonally across ceilings and walls to minimize friction.
“If it looks pretty,” he says, “it probably doesn’t save energy.”
Source: Climate Progress
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Populations preparing to be moved
by admin on Aug.11, 2009, under Greencon, Greencon International News
Some Pacific Island states are preparing their populations for relocation if climate change claims their homes, and New Zealand appears to be more willing than Australia to accept them.
The impact of climate change on the Pacific was a hot topic at the Pacific Islands Forum leaders summit in Cairns today.
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told reporters it was necessary to be blunt about priorities.
The first step was to minimise the impact of climate change, internal relocation was the next consideration and if that failed “a wider international response” would be required.
He stopped short of confirming Australia would be willing to accept people displaced by climate change.
Prime Minister John Key said New Zealand would support countries if it came to relocating people.
“It would be my hope that we would never come to that,” he said.
“You’re talking about countries being submerged and I haven’t seen any advice that that is an imminent likelihood.”
Vanuatu Prime Minister Edward Natapei said his country suffered from cyclones, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunami.
Two years ago an entire village had to be relocated inland because homes were under water.
However, Mr Natapei said not all of Vanuatu was low-lying and people could be relocated internally. His country would need assistance to do that.
For Kiribati it was a different story, with the government there working to educate and train people so they can move overseas if disaster strikes.
“We are very proud people and my government does not want the people of Kiribati to be relocated as refugees,” Kiribati Secretary of Foreign Affairs Tessie Lambourne told reporters.
Mr Rudd said climate change had dominated today’s talks and coincided with the release of a report his government had prepared.
The report referred to the particular vulnerability of Pacific Island states to climate change and the need for global action, supporting those nations to build climate resilience and sustainable development.
With 50 percent of the population in Pacific Island states living within 1.5km of the coastline, rising sea levels were not an abstract idea, Mr Rudd said.
Australia would support “practical measures” to help Pacific Island states adapt through taking the Pacific’s situation to the world, ensuring better coordination and acting on behalf of the region.
Mr Key said the threat to those countries was why New Zealand was taking climate change seriously.
Niue’s Premier Toke Talagi said climate change was a “real problem” in the Pacific and one which “if not reversed, threatens our livelihoods”.
Smaller island state leaders have called on developed nations to commit to significant emissions reductions to help prevent climate change.
Source: National Business Review
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