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	<title>Renewable Energy Blog &#187; Greencon Product Range</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/category/greencon-product-range/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog</link>
	<description>Greencon's blog on environmentally friendly renewable power products &#38; related issues.</description>
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		<title>Greencon Heat Pumps</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/07/greencon-heat-pumps/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/07/greencon-heat-pumps/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jul 2010 14:50:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Product Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Technology Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Heat Pumps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Renewable Energy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=991</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Heat pumps are an excellent alternative to passive energy collection systems. They still rely on electrical power but there advantage lies in the extremly efficient way they manage to heat water. At optimal ambient tempreture (20degC) they can work at an energy conversion factor of +/- 4.5times. So for every one kilowatt of power you [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-993" title="Greencon Heat Pumps " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/2-300x259.png" alt="" width="300" height="259" /></a>Heat pumps are an excellent alternative to passive energy collection systems. They still rely on electrical power but there advantage lies in the extremly efficient way they manage to heat water. At optimal ambient tempreture (20degC) they can work at an energy conversion factor of +/- 4.5times. So for every one kilowatt of power you put in, you get at least 4,5kw(thermal) out.</p>
<p>Sounds like a whole lot of Greek? Basically you can look at a saving of up to 70% on electrical usage for heating water.</p>
<p>We have installed heat pumps in areas from the Pilanesburg Game Park, to Johannesburg, Pretoria and along our coastal regions with very good results.</p>
<p>Please contact <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/contacts.htm">here</a> if you need any further help.</p>
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		<title>Embassies In South Africa Going Green</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/embassies-in-south-africa-going-green/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/embassies-in-south-africa-going-green/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Apr 2010 03:55:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Local Energy Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Product Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Solar PV]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=980</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Japanese Embassy in South Africa has installed 410 solar panels to the value of R8-million in an effort to reduce its yearly carbon emissions.
It is estimated that around 90 t a year of carbon dioxide would be saved using the solar panels.
Japanese Ambassador Toshiro Ozawa said that the embassy had decided to switch to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-981" title="Greencon Solar PV Johannesburg South Africa " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Untitled30-300x247.png" alt="" width="300" height="247" /></a>The Japanese Embassy in South Africa has installed <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">410 solar panels</a> to the value of R8-million in an effort to reduce its yearly carbon emissions.</p>
<p>It is estimated that around 90 t a year of carbon dioxide would be saved using the <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">solar panels</a>.</p>
<p>Japanese Ambassador<strong> Toshiro Ozawa</strong> said that the embassy had decided to switch to <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">solar power generation</a>, owing to <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">South Africa&#8217;s solar friendly climate</a> and to showcase its commitment in tackling the serious issues of climate change.</p>
<p>The new system is one of the largest solar power generation systems for office use in South Africa, and Ozawa noted that there were a number of other Japanese companies that were interested in contributing to the growth of the <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">solar power industry in South Africa. </a></p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">panels, supplied by Sanyo</a>, are able to produce 100 kW/h of electricity, which would cover between 80% and 90% of the Embassy&#8217;s power needs. Ozawa said that the Embassy would still be connected to State-utility Eskom&#8217;s power grid that would mainly be used at night.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Ozawa commented that often the issues of economic development took precedence over climate change issues, especially in developing countries, which could lead to &#8220;disastrous consequences&#8221; in future.</p>
<p>At the Copenhagen conference in December 2009, the Japanese government committed $15-billion, over a three-year period, to assist developing countries with adaptation, mitigation and access to renewable energy.</p>
<p>Under the Copenhagen Accord, South Africa has committed to a 34% deviation below the ‘business as usual&#8217; emission growth trajectory by 2020, but said that it would need financial assistance from developed countries to do so.</p>
<p>Ozawa said that Japan had recently signed a $5-million agreement with Lesotho for the adaptation and mitigation of the adverse effects of climate change. He noted that Japan was prepared to do more in the region, including in South Africa.</p>
<p>From: Creamer Media</p>
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		<title>Massive Growth in German PV Market</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/massive-growth-in-german-pv-market/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/massive-growth-in-german-pv-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Apr 2010 10:58:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon International News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Product Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Solar PV]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=961</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The German Federal Network Agency has released preliminary photovoltaic (PV) installations in the country for 2009, which highlight the significant growth that took place between October and December 2009. In total, 3.8GW was installed in 2009, a 60% increase over 2008. 2.3GW was installed between October and December.
“According to the figures we have done in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The German Federal Network Agency has released preliminary <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products.htm">photovoltaic (PV)</a> installations in the country for 2009, which highlight the significant growth that took place between October and December 2009. In total, 3.8GW was installed in 2009, a 60% increase over 2008. 2.3GW was installed between October and December.</p>
<p>“According to the figures we have done in the past year, a significant build up of <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products.htm">solar systems</a>. The installed capacity has increased from 6.0 gigawatts in 2008 to 9.8 gigawatts in 2009,&#8221; noted Matthias Kurth, President of the Federal Network Agency, in a statement.</p>
<p>Figures released for the year through to September, 2009 showed that installations had reached 1.5GW.</p>
<p>Based on the Federal Network Agency data, installations in December reached 1,45GW alone.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-962" title="Greencon" src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Untitled24.png" alt="" width="487" height="304" /></a></p>
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		<title>The State of Solar Thermal in SA</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/the-state-of-solar-thermal-in-sa/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/the-state-of-solar-thermal-in-sa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Apr 2010 16:18:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Local Energy Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Product Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Solar Technology Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Solar Water Heating Solutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Thermosiphon Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=919</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The government has set the target of 10 000 GWh of renewable energy generation by 2013 and Eskom is expecting its Solar Water Heating Programme to contribute up to 23% of this target. According to Cedric Worthmann, the Solar Water Heating Programme manager at Eskom, the programme has delivered an average of 6.4 GWh per [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The government has set the target of 10 000 GWh of renewable energy generation by 2013 and Eskom is expecting its <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">Solar Water Heating Programme</a> to contribute up to 23% of this target. According to Cedric Worthmann, the Solar Water Heating Programme manager at Eskom, the programme has delivered an average of 6.4 GWh per annum to date.<a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-920" title="Greencon " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/10032010257-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p>Worthmann says that the significant increase of the rebate was calculated in order to allow a five-year payback period. “This calculation is done taking into account the average cost of systems, average savings per system, average electricity tariff rate and cost of capital at prime interest rate per system size,” says Worthmann.</p>
<p><strong>Solar by law?</strong><br />
James Shirley, General Manager at Kayema Energy Solutions, says that although the Eskom rebate increase has caused a significant increase in solar water heater sales, he doubts that the government’s target will be reached.</p>
<p>“The rebate is definitely helping the solar water heating industry, but I doubt that government will be able to achieve such significant market penetration,” says Shirley. “Eskom have raised the rebate in order to make solar water heating systems financially viable for the public, but unless government is going to make solar water heating systems compulsory for all new buildings, I don’t see how we will achieve 10 000 GWh of renewable energy generation by 2013.”</p>
<p>Barry Bredenkamp, operations manager at NEEA (National Energy Efficiency Agency), says that he doesn’t think it will be necessary or practical for government to make solar water heaters compulsory. “In some instances, solar water heaters are just not practical,” says Barry before explaining that if a building’s orientation doesn’t lend itself to the optimal use of the technology, or for example, where indigenous trees provide a natural barrier between the building and the sun and where an alternate technology, such as a heat pump, may provide a better solution for the application.</p>
<p>“However, with the rising price of electricity, the increase in subsidies and the reduction in the price of solar water heaters as more competitors enter the market, I believe we will see a natural evolution from conventional electrically-operated geysers to more efficient solar water heaters, without legislation being introduced,” says Bredenkamp.</p>
<p><strong>Changing the rebate requirements<br />
</strong>Shirley also says that the requirements that enabled consumers to qualify for a <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">solar water heating rebate</a> (i.e added cost of installed equipment) were too high, and offset the previous rebate amount, and the administrative work around claiming the rebate was laborious. “Eskom had a lot of prerequisites concerning not only the heating system, but also the installation, putting a lot of consumers off the process of installing these systems because, it was too difficult to claim the rebate,” says Shirley.</p>
<p>According to Shirley, there is a lot of paperwork involved in claiming your solar water heating rebate from Eskom, but it isn’t difficult. “You generally wait about eight weeks to get your money back. This is not an extremely long time, but I’m thinking that people are a bit strapped for cash when they are waiting for their claim to be processed, which is deterring them from getting a solar water heating system.”<a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-921" title="Greencon" src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/16022010307-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p>“The new process for claiming is very simple: the reason people think it is difficult is that generally, people do not read instructions, and are being misled by suppliers that are not prepared to join the programme,” says Worthmann.</p>
<p>www.eskom.co.za/dsm states the rebate system is not in anyway exclusive. The current requirements of a supplier to sell systems that qualify for rebates are the following:<br />
• Be able to offer a five year guarantee<br />
• Submit documents, including public liability and company details<br />
• Have system tested and passed at the SABS for the following:<br />
o Safety<br />
o Mechanical<br />
o Thermal</p>
<p><strong>The actual rebate claiming process</strong><br />
The ten step program on reclaiming a rebate (according to the Eskom-system), can be summed up as follows:<br />
• Thoroughly research the solar water heating system.<br />
• Call EEDSM Help or visit www.eskom.co.za/dsm to get an approved supplier.<br />
• Get an Eskom approved installer to install the (Eskom approved) system.<br />
• Make sure an (Eskom approved) timer is installed by an ECB registered electrician.<br />
• Get your supplier, installer and electrician to fill out the relevant details on your claim form.<br />
• Complete the rest of the details and attach the relevant documents (original invoice, copy of ID, copy of utility bill and/or electricity bills are listed as examples).<br />
• Post the claim to the facilitating auditors (Deloitte) in a self addressed envelope or drop it off in a designated drop box within six months of installation.<br />
• Wait for a SMS notification that a) the facilitating auditors have received your application and b) when your application is processed and queued for electronic funds transfer/your form is incomplete.<br />
• Payment is made within eight weeks of receipt.<br />
• Random technical audits will be carried out on some systems to ensure installation quality and operation.</p>
<p><strong>Types of solar water heating systems</strong><br />
According to Shirley, there are two main types of<a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"> solar water heating system</a>; the closed loop and the open loop heating systems. “A closed loop system uses heat exchanger fluid and an open loop means that your actual drinking water goes through a tube through the solar panel.” Shirley says that South Africans have three general solar water heating categories to consider when choosing a system:<br />
1. Thermo-siphon systems. This <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">solar water heating system</a> works like a heating suction where the tank sits above the solar panel of tubes. Water temperature and density are used to create the heat cycle of the system.<br />
2. Pumped or split system. The tank of a pumped or split system is separate from the collector (the tank is usually in the roof in this case).<br />
3. Retrofit. Although a bit of money will be saved when retrofitting an electric geyser to work as a solar water geyser, Shirley believes that this is not the correct way of installing a solar water heating system if the current geyser is more than three years old and an entirely new system should be installed instead of retrofitting an existing geyser.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-922" title="Greencon" src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/17032010267-225x300.jpg" alt="" width="225" height="300" /></a>Proven technology – the problem is money and public buy-in</strong><br />
The value of Eskom’s solar water heating rebate is based on the capability of the system to replace the use of electrical energy and all solar water heating systems included in the programme will have a SABS test conformity report rating their efficiency (www.eskom.co.za/dsm). Based on these test results, a system will qualify for a rebate ranging typically between ZAR1 500 and ZAR5 000.</p>
<p>www.eskom.co.za/dsm states that electrical geysers use between 30% and 50% of a household&#8217;s monthly electricity bill and replacing a conventional geyser with a <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">solar powered system</a> will reduce that percentage of electricity consumption by up to 70%.</p>
<p>“The technology is proven internationally and people now trust the technology in South Africa. The only problem is funding. Even though the solar water heating rebate has made the payback period more viable, the general public still has to be convinced to spend the initial capital on purchasing a system. The client then needs to recover the subsidy from a third party, which means that they are burdened with the administrative issues involved,” says Shirley.</p>
<p><strong>The deadlines</strong><br />
“The important thing is that the rebate won’t last forever and it has been put in place to encourage people to switch now rather than later,” says Shirley.</p>
<p>Worthmann confirmed that there is in fact a deadline for Eskom’s programme. “The Solar Water Heating Programme will continue until 2014 as per an agreement with the Minister of Energy, or when the first million units are installed,” says Worthmann. “Eskom is engaging with various financial institutions and insurance companies, to increase the uptake of SWHs in the programme. People don’t want to spend money on replacing a system that is functioning, which is why we are engaging with the insurance companies to replace damaged geysers with solar. We are also focusing on working with the municipalities to assist them to help their consumers to convert. This rebate will be offered to all qualifying persons and installations as long as funds are available.”</p>
<p><strong>Electrical geysers – who is losing?</strong><br />
“In the solar water heating industry, almost all geyser manufacturers have either completely switched to solar water heating systems or they are including solar ranges into their product offerings,” explains Shirley. “The industry knows that solar water heating is the future and everyone is adapting. I don’t think there are any suppliers who truly believe that selling only electrical geysers is a financially viable option – power is getting too expensive and that situation is not going to change. We need to change the way we <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">heat water</a>.”<a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-923" title="Greencon" src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Untitled20-300x216.png" alt="" width="300" height="216" /></a></p>
<p>Bredenkamp comments that although solar water heating systems are more widespread today, there are still people selling electrical geysers. “Like I’ve said before, there are certain applications where there is no choice but to install an electric geyser. Many <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">solar water heaters</a> are installed in parallel with an electric geyser, which serves as a back-up for when there are extended periods of inclement weather, so we can’t just do away with electrical geysers,” says Bredenkamp.</p>
<p><strong>Solar water heating life cycle</strong><br />
Shirley says that, “the life cycle of electric geysers and solar water heating systems are more or less the same”.  “Electric geysers generally have a five year guarantee, some have a ten year guarantee, and the design lifetime of a <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">good solar water heating system</a> is around 20 years.</p>
<p>Although www.eskom.co.za/dsm states that most systems are guaranteed for five years, the expected life of the equipment is between ten and 15 years and that each piece of equipment has a different profile, which depends on various elements such as geographical area, water usage profile, number of users and the size of the system.</p>
<p>Bredenkamp explains that even if you had to replace a relatively more expensive solar water heating system approximately every ten years, the energy savings that one receives is still worth the more expensive initial costs.</p>
<p>“The energy savings will definitely make up for the initial costs of the system, but there are some instances where it would not be worth it, such as a holiday home that is only used for one month of the year. It is not really a good idea having a ‘un-utilised’ solar water heater installed, as the pressure build-up can lead to problems with various components of the system, such as the rubber seals,” says Bredenkamp.</p>
<p>“Although in principle, we would like to see as many solar water heaters on roofs as possible, one has to do a realistic assesment of the situation and a simple calculation, to determine the sheer economics of the specific application.”</p>
<p><strong>Imports not designed for our climate or resources</strong><br />
www.eskom.co.za/dsm states that although solar water heating technology is not new to the industry in South Africa, it is still characterised by high manufacturing costs and low sales volumes.</p>
<p>“Although the market for solar water heating systems in South Africa is certainly growing, the biggest concern for local suppliers is reputable companies being bombarded by people overseas bringing back cheap goods,” says Shirley. “The problem is not only that overseas solar water heating suppliers don’t have a proper working knowledge of our national codes of practice or that they can not offer a back up service, the problem is that these products are not always designed for South Africa’s climate or resources. Our ambient temperature and solar radiation levels are not the same as many overseas countries, meaning that there needs to be corrective design at the factory level to ensure correct water temperature limits are met for imported systems.</p>
<p>Bredenkamp says that although there will always be the problem of cheap imports, South Africa has standards and procedures in place to protect consumers from the majority of poor quality solar water heaters.</p>
<p>“There will always be cases where opportunistic individuals see a business opportunity and start importing ‘cheap’ products from various countries abroad. We in South Africa are lucky in this respect, since all products that want to qualify for a subsidy, need to be tested and passed by the South African Bureau of Standards (SABS). There is a national standard with which the products need to comply and the SABS and the Tshwane University of Technology have the equipment to test products according to this standard,” says Bredenkamp.</p>
<p>“However, we must caution the public against purchasing solar water heaters that may initially appear to be cheaper (even without any subsidy), than those who have been tested by the SABS. In most cases, these products will not withstand the test of time and the supplier or distributor may not be around in future to honor any given guarantees. It is therefore imperative that the public insist on seeing a SABS test report of the specific product, before making a purchase decision.”</p>
<p><strong>Engineering precision of commercial solutions</strong><br />
Shirley says that commercial solar water heating systems are very different from the types of solar water heating systems that home owners use. “Commercial solar water heating systems are an entirely different story,” says Shirley. “A lot of engineering work is involved and the costs are obviously higher. Instead of installing one or two panels, you may need over 100 panels with large storeage tanks in the case of a hospital or hotel where a lot of hot water is consumed. But even though this is expensive, the electricity savings does make it financially viable.”</p>
<p>According to Worthmann, Eskom will have a programme in place for commercial applications this year. “We are busy formalising a commercial sector solar programme which we hope to launch mid-year. There are many competent companies that can design and install these large systems, and have being doing so for many years,” says Worthmann.</p>
<p>“The way I see it, solar water heating systems for commercial applications are about reducing a company’s carbon footprint and lowering your operating costs. A solar water heater should be seen as an investment, not a product. When you buy a solar water heating system, you are buying hot water for the next 15 – 20 years and you are using a lot less energy for this hot water,” concludes Shirley</p>
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		<title>Growth Internationally in Wind Generation</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/growth-internationally-in-wind-generation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/growth-internationally-in-wind-generation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Apr 2010 08:01:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon International News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Product Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Wind Power]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=909</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Global wind energy markets are expected to continue their rapid growth, with the world&#8217;s wind power capacity increasing by 160% over the coming five years, according to the annual industry forecast presented by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).
GWEC said that it expects that the global installed wind capacity will reach 409 GW by 2014, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Global wind energy markets are expected to continue their rapid growth, with the world&#8217;s <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-8-alternative_energy_consultants.htm">wind power</a> capacity increasing by 160% over the coming five years, according to the annual industry forecast presented by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).</p>
<p>GWEC said that it expects that the global installed wind capacity will reach 409 GW by 2014, up from 158.5 GW at the end of 2009. This assumes an average growth rate of 21% per year, which is conservative compared to the 29% average growth that the wind industry experienced over the past decade. The organization predicts that in 2014, total wind capacity additions will be more than 60 GW, up from the 38.3 GW of annual wind capacity installations in 2009.</p>
<p>&#8220;Even in the face of a global recession and financial crisis, wind energy continues to be the technology of choice in many countries around the world. Wind power is clean, reliable and quick to install, so it is the most attractive solution for improving supply security, reducing CO2 emissions, and creating thousands of jobs in the process,&#8221; said Steve Sawyer, GWEC Secretary General. &#8220;All of these qualities are of key importance, even more so in times of economic uncertainty.&#8221;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/assets/images/story/2010/4/13/1332-global-wind-market-going-strong-at-150-gw.jpg" alt="" width="475" height="281" /></p>
<p>GWEC will present its full annual <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-8-alternative_energy_consultants.htm">Global Wind</a> 2009 Report at the European Wind Energy Conference in Warsaw on April 21 2010, which will include a five year forecast for the development of the global wind energy market. In the past, these projections have regularly been outstripped by the actual performance of the industry and have had to be adjusted upwards. Despite the ramifications of the financial crisis, 2009 was no exception.</p>
<p>The two markets leading global wind power expansion will continue to be the U.S. and China, whose markets have exceeded all expectations in recent years.</p>
<p><strong>North America Wind Development</strong></p>
<p>While in the U.S., the development for 2010 will be hampered by continued tightness in the financial markets and the overall economic downturn, the provisions of the US government&#8217;s Recovery Act, and in particular the grant programs, will continue to counteract the impacts of the crisis.</p>
<p>Coupled with legislative uncertainty at the federal level in Canada, the result is that the North American market is forecast to stay flat for the next couple of years, and then pick up again in 2012, to reach a cumulative total of 101.5 GW by 2014 (up from 38.5 GW in 2009). This would translate into an addition of 63 GW in the US and Canada over the next five years.</p>
<p>Canada could see a boost from offshore projects however. This week Windstream Wolfe Island Shoals Inc., a subsidiary of Windstream Energy LLC was awarded a Feed-in Tariff contract by the Ontario Power Authority to develop Canada&#8217;s first offshore wind site. The 300 MW site is located west of Wolfe Island, Ontario on approximately 48,000 acres of shallow water shoals in Lake Ontario.</p>
<p>&#8220;We are extremely excited about the opportunity afforded to us by the government of Ontario and the Ontario Power Authority. The 300MW offshore Wolfe Island site will create hundreds of jobs for the Province of Ontario and the local municipalities. Wolfe Island is one of the windiest areas of the province and has proven local support for wind development. Our project is close to the Lennox Thermal Station, and will offset the use of fossil fuels, by providing power generated by the abundant winds of Lake Ontario,&#8221; said Ian Baines, president of Windstream Energy.</p>
<p><strong>Chinese Wind Growth</strong></p>
<p>In China, growth is set to continue at a breathtaking pace. Already in 2009, China accounted for one third of total annual wind capacity additions, with 13.8 GW worth of new wind farms installed. This took China&#8217;s total capacity up to 25.9 GW, thereby overtaking Germany as the country with the most wind power capacity by a narrow margin.</p>
<p>China will remain one of the main drivers of global growth in the coming years, with annual additions expected to be over 20 GW by 2014. This development is underpinned by a very aggressive government policy supporting the diversification of the electricity supply and the growth of the domestic industry. The Chinese government has an unofficial target of 150 GW of wind capacity by</p>
<p><strong>Europe and Beyond</strong></p>
<p>Until 2013, Europe will continue to host the largest wind capacity. However, GWEC expects that by the end of 2014, Europe&#8217;s installed capacity will stand at 136.5 GW, compared to Asia&#8217;s 148.8 GW. By 2014, the annual European market will reach 14.5 GW, and a total of 60 GW will be installed in Europe over this five-year period.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-8-alternative_energy_consultants.htm">African wind market</a> isn&#8217;t high on many analysts radar, but developer Rainmaker Energy Projects has started full Environmental Impact Assessments for two proposed wind farms situated in the Eastern Cape, South Africa totaling 610 MW. Rainmaker has been conducting on-site feasibility studies for the past year and plans to have all development processes completed by the fourth quarter of 2010.</p>
<p>The two projects are the 550-MW Dorper project covering 150 square kilometers in the vicinity of Molteno and the 60-MW AB’s project covering 20 square kilometers in the vicinity of Indwe.</p>
<p>“The Dorper and AB’s projects have shown the most magnificent wind regime. In terms of average wind speed, mean wind speed and energy profile, they are exceptional. During peak usage times over winter, the Dorper and AB’s projects both consistently have the profile which could almost be compared to a base load power station — complementing South Africa’s energy consumption profile and providing power when its grid is at its most fragile,&#8221; said Development Manager for Rainmaker Energy Projects’ Luke Callcott-Stevens.</p>
<p>A number of wind energy projects in South Africa have commenced development during the last three years, but the industry has so far failed to come online. However, the Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff (REFIT) announced in 2009 and the proposed introduction of the Independent Systems Operator by the Department of Energy and the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) promise an imminent breakthrough for the industry.</p>
<p>The proposed Dorper and AB’s projects both have existing transmission grid infrastructure on site. Their development and operation could contribute to the Department of Energy’s self-imposed target of producing 10,000 GWh of renewable energy by the year 2013</p>
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		<title>Water Security, a huge global issue</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/water-security-a-huge-global-issue/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/04/water-security-a-huge-global-issue/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Apr 2010 04:26:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Environmental Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Product Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Water Savers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=887</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With headlines proclaiming “water is the new oil,” the race to make desalination a viable solution to worldwide water shortages is on.
In recent years, a number of big-name companies have gotten into the desalination game, including Dow and General Electric, both of which have worked on advanced material membranes for desalination. Today, IBM joined the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-888" title="Greencon" src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Untitled7-300x199.png" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a>With headlines proclaiming “water is the new oil,” the race to make desalination a viable solution to worldwide water shortages is on.</p>
<p>In recent years, a number of big-name companies have gotten into the desalination game, including Dow and General Electric, both of which have worked on advanced material membranes for desalination. Today, IBM joined the group with its announcement of a pilot desalination project in Saudi Arabia.</p>
<p>Conducted in partnership with a team of researchers from the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology, the IBM pilot will test two new technologies from IBM’s research team: a nanomaterial membrane that will help to chemically separate water from salt and other elements found in ocean or brackish water, and a concentrated solar system with an innovative cooling mechanism that will allow it to take better advantage of the desert heat and fuel the desalination process with renewable energy.</p>
<p>As is the case with most projects that grow out of Big Blue’s research team, these technologies will be tested by IBM but commercialized by someone else.</p>
<blockquote><p>“We are not about to get into the solar business or the membrane business, we’re in IT,” explains Sharon Nunes, vice president of IBM’s Big <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-15-water_saving_shower_heads.htm">Green Innovations</a>.</p></blockquote>
<p>The project gets at one of the primary reasons many environmentalists have long opposed desalination: It’s energy intensive.</p>
<p><strong><br />
<a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">Shifting to Solar</a></strong></p>
<p>The vast majority of desalination plants in the world employ a process called reverse osmosis. Either ocean water or brackish water is pushed through a series of membranes at very high pressure, effectively separating water from other elements.</p>
<p>Most companies looking to get into the desalination space, which is all but guaranteed to grow over the next several years, concentrate on the membrane, researching advanced materials that can help to chemically strip water from other elements and thus reduce the pressure requirements for the water coming through the membranes, which in turn reduces the energy requirements of the process.</p>
<p>According to the Encyclopedia of Desalination and Water Resources, the theoretical minimum amount of energy required to desalinate a cubic meter of water is .86 kWh, but the actual energy required in plants throughout the world is five to 26 times that. The theoretical minimum calculates only the energy required to separate water from other elements, not the power required to keep a plant running in general.</p>
<p>That’s where the solar power comes in.</p>
<p>Desalination plants and solar energy are a natural fit: More often than not, areas with water shortages also tend to be areas where there’s quite a bit of sun. At the IBM/KAST Saudi Arabia plant, a <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">solar concentrator system</a> will capture energy equivalent to 1,500 suns, according to IBM, powering a plant that will produce 30,000 cubic meters per day of fresh water for a city of 100,000 people.</p>
<p>So why haven’t solar-powered desal plants been popping up all over the world?</p>
<blockquote><p>“Solar is still not at grid parity, and if you’re going to build a <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">solar system</a> into a desalination plant, you also need a back-up system in case of cloudy days or dust storms, and all of that is a large additional cost to building a plant,” explains Nunes.</p></blockquote>
<p>Part of what reduces the cost of solar in this case, according to Nunes, is a proprietary cooling technology that cuts down on system outages and maintenance issues. The liquid metal interface of the system, a technology that grew out of IBM’s experience with mainframe computers and chip manufacturing, enables very high cooling rates, according to Nunes, and thus more intense energy capture.</p>
<blockquote><p>“Usually, the more energy capture, the hotter your solar cell gets, and we’re talking about really extreme temperatures, which means you end up with unreliable chips or you burn out your chips entirely, so cooling these systems is very important,” she said.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong><br />
High-Tech Membranes Increase Efficiency</strong></p>
<p>According to Nunes, the membranes employed at the Saudi desalination plant will help reduce the plant’s energy requirements.</p>
<p>The membrane includes fluorine, which is naturally hydrophobic, but at an adjusted pH that makes it hydrophilic. In layman’s terms, through the magic of chemistry, a material that usually repels water now attracts it, which makes it a very effective membrane with which to desalinate water. The material also is resistant to chlorine, which is often used to pre-treat water in purification systems but typically degrades membranes.</p>
<p>The membrane is also more resistant to fouling than other membranes on the market, according to Nunes. The sand, shells, weeds and small sea creatures that can get stuck on membranes means they need to be cleaned fairly often, and when the membranes are at their dirtiest, more energy is required to push water through them at a higher pressure.</p>
<p>Which gets to the other aspects of desalination that environmentalists don’t particularly like, aspects that IBM’s technology isn’t yet focused on: loss of biodiversity in some marine areas and the effect of the briny effluent produced by the desalination process, which is generally dumped back into the original water source.</p>
<p><strong><br />
Concerns for Biodiversity</strong></p>
<p>The brine (a highly salty water that’s 10 times saltier than average ocean water) produced by desalination plants has been tested in labs and shown to have little effect on marine life, but the argument from some marine biologists is that in a lab test, fish and other sea life can’t get away; while the brine may not kill them, in a real-world scenario they may opt to just leave an area that is suddenly 10 times saltier than it used to be.</p>
<p>The loss of biodiversity is an issue that has largely been pooh-poohed by desalination proponents. There are currently more than 12,000 desalination plants in the world, and as that number grows, it could have a drastic effect on marine ecosystems as the smallest organisms are routinely sucked into a pump and crushed against membranes.</p>
<p>The current focus on improving energy and water efficiency in desalination plants is a positive one, and replacing coal-powered desalination with solar-powered desalination is imperative, otherwise the “solution” to the water problem is helping to exacerbate one of the causes: climate change.</p>
<p>But the idea of efficiency needs to be more broadly applied to the water problem as a whole. One of the reasons that fresh water is at a premium is that much of it has been polluted. In some cases, that renders the water completely undrinkable; in others, in order to drink it, the fresh water needs to be purified in much the same way that saltwater needs to be desalinated, and that process is also energy intensive.</p>
<p>Purification processes need to become more efficient, fresh water stores need to be better protected and technologies that help people use less water and use it more efficiently are still desperately needed. As is the case with energy, solutions to the water shortage need to look at efficiency first and then filling in with “new” water where nothing more can be done on the efficiency front.</p>
<p>As a researcher at the Pacific Institute studying the pros and cons of desalination once put it to me, if you’ve got a leaky bucket, what’s the more logical solution, to just add more water or to plug the holes?</p>
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		<title>Three Systems for renovated house</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/01/three-systems-for-renovated-house/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/01/three-systems-for-renovated-house/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jan 2010 11:31:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Product Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Solar Water Heating Solutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Thermosiphon Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This particular house was being renovated, and the client used the opportunity to reduce their consumption. Have a look, basically the servants quarters, main house and cottage are all being delivered super hot water from the solar thermal system.





Keep it Green

Greencon


]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;">This particular house was being renovated, and the client used the opportunity to reduce their consumption. Have a look, basically the servants quarters, main house and cottage are all being delivered super hot water from the <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">solar thermal system</a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-782" title="Greencon Solar " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/27112009133-1024x768.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="768" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-784" title="Greencon Solar " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/27112009136-1024x768.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="768" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-783" title="Greencon Solar" src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/27112009135-1024x768.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="768" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;">Keep it Green</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">Greencon</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;">
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Thermosiphon Installation</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/01/thermosiphon-installation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2010/01/thermosiphon-installation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jan 2010 08:58:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Product Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Solar Water Heating Solutions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Thermosiphon Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=741</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Honestly the best way to install a solar thermal unit. In this example one of our teams installed a vacuum tube system into the clients house. This was advised for various reasons, but mainly due to the fact that the customer receives partial sunlight due to tree interference and shadows that are cast at certain times [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;">Honestly the best way to install a solar thermal unit. In this example <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">one of our teams installed a vacuum tube system</a> into the clients house. This was advised for various reasons, but mainly due to the fact that the customer receives partial sunlight due to tree interference and shadows that are cast at certain times in the day.  The <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za">vacuum tubes</a> with there increased efficiency can still produce the amount of heat required for the customers usage.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-744" title="Greencon Thermosiphon System " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/15102009328-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">Essentially what the<a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"> Greencon</a> technicians had designed, was a pre-feed system. The client wanted to dramatically reduce the amount of electricity being used to  heat there rather large domestic boiler. So we designed a system that fed the boiler with <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">solar heated hot water</a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-745" title="Greencon Pre-Feed System " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/15102009332-225x300.jpg" alt="" width="225" height="300" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;">The site was relatively treed, so we decided to go with <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">vacuum tubes</a>, for there increased efficiency.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-746" title="Greencon Site " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/30092009256-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-747" title="Greencon Thermosiphon System " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/19102009350-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-748" title="Greencon Solar System " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/19102009354-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;">Let the saving Begin.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">www.greencon.co.za</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
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		<title>Greencon Goes Mobile</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2009/09/greencon-goes-mobile/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2009/09/greencon-goes-mobile/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2009 10:14:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=734</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Are you still a sceptic? Or do you lack the capacity to convince all around you that this is the future? Well then get Greencon to deliver a display unit at your workplace or complex. We have a number of units that can be delivered with &#8220;lecture&#8221; dates advertised on the units for all interested [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Are you still a sceptic? Or do you lack the capacity to convince all around you that this is the future? Well then get Greencon to deliver a display unit at your workplace or complex. We have a number of units that can be delivered with &#8220;lecture&#8221; dates advertised on the units for all interested to come and learn. Mail : info@greencon.co.za to book a delivery date.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-735" title="Greencon " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/03092009038-300x225.jpg" alt="Greencon " width="300" height="225" /></p>
<p><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-736" title="Greencon" src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/01092009030-225x300.jpg" alt="Greencon" width="225" height="300" /></a> <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #551a8b;"><span><span style="color: #000000;"><br />
</span></span></span></p>
<p><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-737" title="Greencon " src="http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/03092009037-300x225.jpg" alt="Greencon " width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p>Keep it <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za">Green</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-1-solar_water_heating.htm">Greencon</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Economic Review of the International PV Industry</title>
		<link>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2009/09/economic-review-of-the-international-pv-industry/</link>
		<comments>http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/2009/09/economic-review-of-the-international-pv-industry/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2009 08:50:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Greencon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greencon Product Range]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emission Reductions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environmental Responsibility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Governmental Responsibility to the environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Solar Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Solar Power]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greencon.co.za/blog/?p=726</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[South African PV industry is still in it&#8217;s embrionic phase, but there are some nice signs from NERSA and the like. We thought it would be useful to post some industry research abouth the status of the international PV industry. Make for some intersting reading&#8230;

As an industry, the photovoltaic sector has witnessed its share of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="newsSubHeader">South African PV industry is still in it&#8217;s embrionic phase, but there are some nice signs from NERSA and the like. We thought it would be useful to post some industry research abouth the status of the international PV industry. Make for some intersting reading&#8230;</div>
<div class="newsSubHeader"></div>
<div class="newsSubHeader">As an industry, the photovoltaic sector has witnessed its share of ups and downs but it has nonetheless recorded 30 years of growth. How is the sector dealing with falling revenues in 2009?</div>
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<div class="viewStoryAuthor">After four years of boom times in the solar industry, a significant softening of demand along with lower module prices has led to anxious times &#8212; fewer sales, at lower selling prices and so lower revenues and, significantly, lower profits.</div>
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<p>Even without the expected decrease in demand in 2009, technology revenues would be lower than the US $20.4 billion (€14 billion) of 2008 as cell and module prices are around 40% below 2008 levels. Figure 1 <em>(shown below)</em> provides technology revenues from the manufacturer to the first point of sale in the market from 2003 through 2013. For 2009 and 2010, an estimate of revenues for the recession forecast has been provided. With technology prices at the current level, even growth in sales volume, which is highly unlikely, would result in lower revenues in 2009.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/assets/images/story/2009/8/31/2-1332-the-pv-industry-2009-in-search-of-stability-and-sustainability.jpg" alt="" /></p>
<p>Figure 1. Worldwide module revenue volume for recession, conservative and accelerated growth models 2003-2013.</p>
<p>Accelerated growth in the photovoltaic industry continued in 2008, with 79% market growth over the previous year to 5.5 GW. Unfortunately, the market was significantly oversold in 2008, stranding around 2 GW of product in supply side inventory at the beginning of 2009.</p>
<p>Most of the overselling was into Spain, which with a market volume coming in at 2.3 GW in 2008, represented 42% of total photovoltaic system sales worldwide. Along with high prices for modules and PV systems, quite a few instances of poor module product and poorly constructed systems, and permit speculation, the oversold market led the Spanish government to alter its support programme. The new decree capped the market, lowered the feed-in tariff and effectively closed Spain to new product sales for perhaps two years, or more.</p>
<p>Other than Germany, the <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">PV</a> industry currently has no other global market capable of accepting a volume of sales remotely similar to Spain. Moreover, the global recession and financial crises have further hobbled an industry that had been enjoying accelerated growth since 2004. For these reasons, the PV industry is set to experience its first decrease in demand in more than 30 years — and not just flat growth, but a decrease in sales volume of perhaps 30%, or even more.</p>
<p>Figure 2, <em>(below)</em>, provides data for 35 years of PV industry growth, from 1974 through 2008, while Figure 3, <em>(below)</em>, reveals three forecast scenarios for 2009, which are on based on assumptions related to recession, conservative and accelerated growth for the sector.</p>
<p>Though the PV industry enjoyed accelerated growth from 2004 through 2008, this rate will not continue in 2009, and accelerated growth is unlikely into 2010. In 2009, lending from the international debt markets continues to be depressed. Meanwhile, the loss of a major market — Spain — is having a deleterious effect on growth, inventories remain high, and global economies remain in recession.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/assets/images/story/2009/8/31/3-1332-the-pv-industry-2009-in-search-of-stability-and-sustainability.jpg" alt="" /></p>
<p>Figure 2. Photovoltaic industry history 1974-2008 (CAGR = compound annual growth rate).</p>
<p>Furthermore, although market development is underway, Germany remains the only market capable of consuming more than a gigawatt of product, and other markets, such as Italy, are underperforming. Japan, South Korea, the United States and others continue to experience slow growth. The good news is that module prices in the soft market seen in 2009 continue to decrease significantly.</p>
<p>As previously noted, while the PV industry has experienced slow or flat growth so far this year — to July 2009 — it is an industry that has not experienced negative growth in 35 years or more. Conversely, years of significant strong growth of more than 70% include: 1975 at 150%, 1976 at 141%,1977 at 87%, 1978 at 112%, 1980 at 128%, 1983 at 88%, and 2008 at 79%.</p>
<p>Since 1974, the PV industry has only experienced three years of soft growth, defined here as demand growth of less than 10% in a given year: 1986 at 8%, 1993 at 3% and, 1994 at 10%.</p>
<p class="subhead"><strong>The Incentive Driver</strong></p>
<p>Historically, the PV industry has enjoyed strong growth, though at much lower volumes than today. The strong growth that the PV industry enjoyed since 2004 was driven by incentives, in particular, the feed-in tariff laws in Europe, and even more specifically, Spain’s generous programme. Though for countries in Europe (in general) there is no reason to assume that <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">feed-in tariff</a> programmes will stop altogether, the problems experienced in Spain (overselling, fraud and poor quality products among them) are having a sobering effect on government incentive planning in other EU countries. The support programmes of the future will need to include mechanisms that manage growth along with stimulating it.</p>
<p>The incentives that the industry relies on come with downward price pressure, which is a significant constraint. However, given the goal of grid parity, there is literally nowhere for price to go but down. Grid parity, nonetheless, is a complex subject, differing in most global markets. Moreover, grid parity provides a level competitive playing field for solar (a worthwhile goal on its own), but does not ensure success.</p>
<p>The industry also needs an increasing number of highly trained installers, sales personnel, engineers and such like, and this comes at a cost. Lower costs and prices are necessary for the continuation of incentives and, therefore, demand. For accelerated growth to continue, and for the eventual slowing of demand to happen gradually, unlike the expected steep decline in 2009, the PV industry must learn to manage its demand. It must develop incentives with triggers to control demand when it accelerates too quickly.</p>
<p>The industry must also control its supply chain from expensive raw material, to consumables, and through to the end user, and must participate with balance of systems (BOS) manufacturers to innovate and develop inexpensive and robust BOS. All raw materials, consumables and machinery are more expensive at this point because of the higher price of oil, which is necessary for transportation.</p>
<p>Other caveats to limitless growth are the high price of <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">PV systems</a>, and the availability of less expensive alternatives, including conventional energy sources such as natural gas and coal. In recent years, the current high volume of industry demand, coupled with raw material shortages, threw the industry into a panic. Instead of the technology standard, ‘if we build it they will come,’ the new mantra became, ‘they are coming and we can’t build it.’</p>
<p>The industry reacted by buying silicon feedstock and cell futures, and by raising component (module) and system average prices, globally. These long-term contracts for raw material, wafers and cells are proving unsupportable and in many cases, are being rewritten or ignored.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/assets/images/story/2009/8/31/4-1332-the-pv-industry-2009-in-search-of-stability-and-sustainability.jpg" alt="" /></p>
<p class="subhead">Figure 3. Recession, conservative and accelerated forecast scenarios for grid-connected PV, 2008-2013.</p>
<p class="subhead"><strong>The Past Can Inform the Future</strong></p>
<p>It is useful to study specific periods in the PV industry’s history, in terms of growth and drivers for growth, to see what can be learned from these periods which can be useful in understanding the direction of this still young industry. Figure 2, offers compound annual growth rates for the PV industry for specific periods, 1974–1984, 1984–1994, 1994–2004 and 2004–2008.</p>
<p>During 1974–1984, strong compound annual growth of 84% was due to utility and government-backed grid-connected demonstration projects. During this period, the grid-connected application was 30%–50% of total demand, though from annual totals less than 20 MW. Following this decade-long period of significant growth, lower compound annual growth of 13% for 1984–1994 was due to an almost complete cessation of these projects. During this period, grid-connected applications (primarily unsubsidized or incentivized) was less than 10% of annual demand.</p>
<p>Stronger compound annual growth of 33% during 1994–2004 reflects the beginning and continuation of the strong incentive programmes that continue to drive PV industry growth. Specifically in Europe, the feed-in tariff model has proven to be the most successful incentive model. Japan’s residential rooftop programme in the late 1990s, a capacity subsidy, built a sustainable market for solar roofs in that country. In the US, incentives in California created the most significant market in that country.</p>
<p>The 2004–2008 period also managed to encompass two significant events for the sector: the PV industry’s greatest raw material (silicon feedstock) shortage and its strongest period of sustained accelerated growth.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/assets/images/story/2009/8/31/6-1332-the-pv-industry-2009-in-search-of-stability-and-sustainability.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="300" />During this period, demand for large field grid-connected applications in Europe, largely driven by the feed-in tariff model of incentives, created the largest global market (79% in 2008) for solar systems. However, the solar-grade silicon raw material shortage that had pushed up prices for crystalline silicon modules also created an entry point for thin-film technologies, which had previously been viewed as risky. The industry’s compound annual growth for this period was 51%.</p>
<p class="subhead"><strong>Grid-connected Growth Drivers</strong></p>
<p>Like it or not &#8230; strong growth in the PV industry comes with strong growth in grid-connected applications. Off-grid (remote) applications show slow, steady growth over time, but have not driven the industry into gigawatt sales. It is the grid-connected applications (residential, small, medium and large commercial, large field commercial and utility) that dominate the market for photovoltaic modules. Indeed, at 94% of total sales in 2008, the volume of grid-connected installation leaves very little module product available for off-grid applications.</p>
<p>The grid-connected application remains driven by government subsidy/support programmes (Europe’s feed-in tariffs, US rebates, for example). Without such programmes the market for grid-connected PV products would decrease dramatically. The significant decrease in demand in 2009 is a lesson to the industry about the significant changes that could take place in demand, revenues and profitability when markets are abused, and when so-called ‘black swan’ events, such as the global recession, alter the playing field and force reactive market and price setting.</p>
<p>Figure 3 <em>(shown above)</em> offers an aggregate five-year forecast for grid-connected applications. The recession forecast is presented in Figure 3, but is considered a two-year anomaly. Meanwhile, Figure 2 excludes <a href="http://www.greencon.co.za/products-display-2-solar_electricity__photvoltaic_panels.htm">off-grid applications</a>. However, at more than 90% of the total market demand, the volume of grid-connected applications effectively represents the total industry volume.</p>
<p>All is not doom and gloom, however, with encouraging current market developments in the US and some other countries. There is continued progress in lowering manufacturing costs so that a reasonable margin can be maintained along with lower system prices. We see progress in increasing efficiencies for all technologies, and business model innovations, meaning that accelerated growth will resume for the PV industry. Certainly, at this stage in PV industry development (which could be likened to its preadolescence) there is room to grow and much to learn before a stable, sustainable level of annual growth settles in. Until then, exciting, and sometimes painful times remain ahead.</p>
<p>Source: Renewable Energy World</p>
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